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OZONE Negotiations Coming to A Dramatic Close
The Politics Align but the Devil is in the Details (and in the Pocketbook)
Montreal Canada . September 18 th – 2007. Environment ministers and government ozone techies listened with delightful surprise, to delegation after delegation commit to rapidly accelerating HCFC phaseouts (ozone depleting substances found in refrigerants). All but a handful of delegations are ready to sign-up to the principled declaration that will likely be announced Friday declaring that the planet wants to do more to combat ozone deterioration, and as an added benefit , produce potentially 5 times the green house gas emission reductions that would have been achieved by 2012, under the Kyoto Climate Treaty.
However, the lightning speed at which countries came together on the politics , is not mirrored in the back-room technical discussions on who pays for the phaseout, how fast it really gets done, by whom and at what price . These details, loaded with politics, according to some development lobbyists, could derail the Montreal Protocol's 20 th Anniversary meeting still in progress this week.
The United States, China, India, all have agreed with proposals submitted by Argentina, Brazil, Mauritius, Mauritania, Iceland, Switzerland, Norway and others, that the world can do more to help cure the ozone problem. The commitments made in 1987 under the Montreal Protocol have already been achieved, and as collateral benefits, according to recent scientific studies, we've slowed climate change by up to 12 years. We've even achieved (with no intension of doing so) an important reduction of greenhouse gases.
But now, with climate change appearing as the central discussion point of the world's most successful environmental treaty ever (the Ozone Treaty), the question is, will the world seize the opportunity to do more ?
The 20 th Montreal Protocol negotiations launched over the weekend with excellent momentum. Most countries, even the most skeptical global warming critics, stepped voluntarily up to bat for the phaseouts. High level leadership is good, almost too good. So good in fact, the countries couldn't come up with a short list of countries to take over negotiations (5 developing and 5 industrialized) in a more orderly and manageable setting. Everyone wanted to be part of history in the making.
Is it too good to be true? , are asking many of the civil society groups present, and countries like Argentina and Brazil that got the phase-out proposal rolling a few months ago, on the heals of new studies showing the excellent benefits of ozone reparation for climate change, and pointing out some perverse incentives under the Kyoto Protocol that are actually working against global warming objectives, like financing through the CDM of HCFC 23 production, a terrible agent for the ozone and for the climate.
Negotiating teams were not technically and politically prepared for the large windfall in favor of the phaseouts, and could not harness in the first few days, the largely favorable environment to iron out a realistic technical agreement. We thought we'd be fighting a more difficult political battle, said Durwood Zaelke , President of the International Network of Environmental Compliance and Enforcement, and we've found ourselves with an early political victory, and a desperate need to move on to ironing out technical discussions that we hadn't thought would precipitate so quickly”. Ministers, who arrived Sunday, and are likely to leave by Wednesday, will leave behind the “political will” to close the deal, but will technical teams be able to resolve the details?
At 2 pm yesterday, the sensation among conference participants was that history was in the making, and that something very positive was about to happen, but as the day rolled forward and delegations could not settle the bureaucratic and diplomatic steps necessary to arrive Friday with a closed deal, worry started to set in.
“ China was better than we expected”, said one delegation representative who wished to remain anonymous. “We're really surprised of the political convergence around the phaseout proposals. We're not sure though that we can resolve more complex issue like finance and timetables, by Friday, when the meeting comes to a close.”
One environmental advocate working for a country delegation likened the atmosphere to an American football match, where the running back takes the ball on his own 1 yardline, breaks through the defense, and sprints alone across the field, only to fumble the ball just yards before the endzone.
Delegations are working long hours on possible agreement scenarios, and conducting bilateral negotiations to work towards an acceptable agreement. One thing is certain, the Montreal Protocol is possibly the world's most successful environmental treat ever. Everyone expects that the next phase, will be no less.
Some delegations were not prepared for a full-fledged agreement on HCFC phaseouts, and are having to scramble to reconciliate positions they made in other declarations, such as that of the G8, with previous positions on global warming, and ozone protection.
What is the magic number? some are asking, since clearly it is about financing the necessary industrial transformation, particularly in developing countries, which point to industrialized nations and their past contamination, juxtaposed with developing country needs today to promote industrialization. The UN indicates that an estimated US$3 to 5 billion will be needed in financing for the phaseout and industrial transformation that the commitments will entail. This is assumed to be fronted by industrialized nations, that will have to pay the bill for developing countries to cease HCFC production. China indicates that the number may be higher. But what we are really talking about, say many, is 5 times the benefits of Kyoto , for a treaty that no one really opposes. It's the Ozone Stupid! An agreement seems inevitable. Failure would seem irrational.
Donor countries need to provide a signal, that not only do they agree to the phaseouts, but they are ready at this stage, to commit financing and technical support for the targets set by the proposed commitments.
Four days are left during which Ministers, and then technical teams need to reach an agreement. The politics seem not to be the problem. But the devil is in the detail and we must wait until Friday to see if a manageable and acceptable solution is reached. .
